Brexit trade deal could take 10 years, says UK's ambassador

The BBC understands Sir Ivan Rogers, Britain's ambassador to the EU, warned ministers that the European consensus was that a deal might not be done until the early to mid-2020s. What they’re not telling you up front is this is the same Sir Ivan, who conducted David Cameron's negotiation over the UK's relationship with the EU; and look how that turned out.

I'm sure there are those who will say, with some justification, that his long history of association with the movers and shakers in the EU make him well placed to know how these people think. However, given that his appointments over the years have all been made and supported by most of the greatest Europhiles our governments have ever seen; Kenneth Clarke, Sir Leon Brittan, Tony B Liar and Gordon Brown, to name but four; I have to wonder about how spin free his pronouncement is.

Mr Rogers served in HM Treasury, including as Private Secretary to Kenneth Clarke, when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer. He then was seconded to the European Commission as Chief of Staff to Sir Leon Brittan, returning to be Director, European Strategy and Policy and later Director of Budget and Public Finances under Gordon Brown.

In 2003, Rogers was chosen to succeed Jeremy (later Sir Jeremy) Heywood as the Principal Private Secretary to the Prime Minister, Tony Blair. After three years in this role, Rogers left the service in 2006 to become Head of the UK Public Sector Group at Citigroup. In 2010 Rogers transferred to be Head of the Public Sector Industry Group, UK and Ireland, at Barclays Capital from 2010 to 2011.

In 2012, Rogers returned to government as the Prime Minister's Adviser for Europe and Global Issues and the Head of the European and Global Issues Secretariat, based in the Prime Minister's Office at Number 10, replacing Jon Cunliffe who had become the senior British diplomat at the EU. On Cunliffe's move to the Bank of England the next year, Rogers succeeded him again, moving to Brussels in 2013.

As of 2015, Rogers was paid a salary of between £170,000 and £174,999 by the Foreign Office, making him one of the 328 most highly paid people in the British public sector at that time.
I would guess that he did not support the Brexit camp and I suspect that his dire warnings factor in his personal negotiating “skill” (look at the "deal" he got with Cameron) and whiff strongly of Project Fear?

Richmond shows UK's Europe split as wide and deep as ever (Robert Peston Headline 02/12/2016)

It's not just Robert Peston. All the Remoaner press are claiming that the Lib Dem win In the Richmond Park by-election is a rebuke to the government's plan to exit the EU. Let's look at the facts for a moment rather than the spin.

The seat is set in the heart of the London metropolitan area, which voted overwhelmingly to 'Remain'. The constituency itself also voted overwhelmingly to 'Remain'. I don't find it at all surprising that, at the first opportunity, they voted to ditch their Brexit backing MP. Zac Goldsmith has only himself to blame. What he should have done is put aside his own opinions and party loyalties and done his best to try to represent the will of the majority of the people who elected him or stood aside for someone who would. That's what democracy is all about.

This result is not a straw in the wind for the Remoaners, who should remember one swallow does not a summer make. What actually remains once the smoke and mirrors have been put away and the fog of battle has cleared is that a clear majority of the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU and thankfully, that's what our government are seeking to bring about.

It's impossible to say this this result reflects the mood of the whole country. It's my guess that if we were to hold a by-election in a safe Labour seat in the North of England, where the sitting MP was vocally anti-Brexit, then probably UKIP would walk it with the Conservatives coming a close second, or vise versa.

If strategy were up to me I'd advise Mrs may to press ahead with the invoking of Article 50. Once that has been done and the inevitable withdrawal has begun the immediately call a snap general election. Go to the country asking for a clear parliamentary majority so that she and the government can negotiate the best deal possible; keeping faith with the will of the people to take back control of our borders, our laws and our judicial sovereignty.